Non-custodial sentences should not automatically be rejected as a soft option. They should be developed and increasingly used as strong alternatives to the waste of time and effort that often characterise prison life. The Home Secretary, Jack Straw, gives the impression on this issue of trying to do good by stealth. There are many encouraging schemes under way, some based on the new and successful developments of the electronic tag He has been shy of tackling the argument head on. He has given no strong lead to magistrates and judges; it is good that Lord Woolf has done so.The realists in this field are the reformers – those who run prisons, visit prisons, spend their lives studying the facts and figures about prisons.

Politicians in all parties who want to prevent crime and help victims of crime should give us a hand. The victims of crime gain nothing if society makes a hash of dealing with the offender.Meanwhile, a piece of advice to the voter as the law and order debate hots up prior to the general election. Ignore any speech, disregard any manifesto that addresses this subject without facing squarely the consequences of its proposals on our prisons – a vital, yet neglected part of our society. Lord Hurd, chairman of the Prison Reform Trust since 1997, was Home Secretary 1985-89.. Even Tony Blair dares to think that he might win the election planned for next May This is saying something. Mr Blair has always been a pessimist as far as his electoral prospects are concerned So are most of his close political allies.

They prefer to send each other memos that convey a sense of doom and panic. Even Tony Blair dares to think that he might win the election planned for next May This is saying something. Mr Blair has always been a pessimist as far as his electoral prospects are concerned So are most of his close political allies. They prefer to send each other memos that convey a sense of doom and panic.
Some of these memos were discovered by Benji the Binman, or some such person, and appeared on the front pages of the newspapers this year, thereby creating a genuine cause for panic in Downing Street. The contents of the memos were fairly preposterous when they were written, but became percipient when they appeared in the newspapers: “Phew, now we have got a real panic on The memos have been handed over to the Sun. We can panic over the memos”.But on the eve of an election year those in the Blairite entourage who enjoy a good panic are relatively calm. The polls are better for Labour than they were for the Conservatives as they entered their landslide election years of 1983 and 1987.

Morale among Tory MPs is lower than it was immediately after the 1997 election Then they did not know what had hit them They were too stunned. Only now is the party awakening from the trauma, and their leading players do not like what they see. They are not asking themselves whether there is a chance of power, but what will happen to their party after they have lost.Even so, Mr Blair’s pessimistic instincts are not entirely misplaced. The rosy political situation, especially the weakness of the Tories, obscures the complex challenges he faces next year, challenges he has either never faced before or has deliberately avoided in his first term.

On the basis of what we have seen of Mr Blair so far there must be doubts as to whether he will meet them. After all there have been times in the past when he has been politically strong, but has acted weakly.In the longer term, Mr Blair will need to address some of the issues postponed during his first four years in power. Indeed, it is interesting to look back at the political columns published on New Year’s Eve 1996, before the last election year. This was the common theme: in 1997 the ambiguities of opposition would be replaced by the need to deliver in power. Instead the ambiguities have continued in many areas.We still do not know whether Mr Blair will take us into the euro, or whether he will change the voting system and move closer to the Liberal Democrats, or whether by the “modernisation” of the welfare state he means incremental reforms similar to those pursued by the last Conservative administration. Nor do we know for sure whether this government is ready to rise to the challenge raised by the crisis in the public services, although Mr Blair showed signs of recognising the scale of the crisis this year.