Jan Hanson was an early walker and talker. Some genuinely believed it to be potentially Europe’s biggest-ever offshore prospect, a belief not discouraged by Regal.Sadly not. So where will this hit?

We are heading into a slowdown and slowdowns inevitably put pressure on the world’s financial system. So where will this hit?
Like so many apparently simple questions, this one is fiendishly difficult to answer. There are an obvious macro-economic tensions – the current account imbalances and in particular the trade deficit between the US and China – but we know about those. They are, in Donald Rumsfeld’s phrase, the “known unknowns”.Banks and other financial institutions will have put themselves in such a position that whatever happens, they will be secure.

So a systemic breakdown in the financial markets triggered by something big like that is unlikely. Even a spike in the price of oil, now less likely with the downturn, could almost certainly be accommodated.There are other tensions in Europe, which have increased as a result of the poor economic performance of the eurozone and in particular Italy and the Netherlands, both of which technically are now in recession. On a ten-year view there may well be some kind of wrenching change in Europe that would take the markets by surprise – a country leaving the eurozone for example – but that is not an immediate threat. Here in the UK there are worries about a collapse in the buy-to-let market, but while this may be tough for some investors, it is hard to imagine anything as bad as the early 1990s negative equity crisis.Besides, it is not Rumsfeld’s “known unknowns” that are likely to unseat the markets, but the “unknown unknowns”. I had a discouraging conversation with a banker a couple of months back who pointed out that every period of very cheap money ended with some kind of financial crisis.

Zero or negative real interest rates encourage bad lending decisions, and the world as a whole (although not so much the UK) has had a long period of these. In this banker’s own institution, credit standards had dropped because of pressure to boost lending and he felt other banks had been even less responsible.If, however, you ask anyone in the City where the crash will come, the answer at the top of the list will be hedge funds. “Your hands are shaking; you badly need another drink.”That night’s ITV news included footage of this minor explosion, but one crucial element – the name of Christopher Hitchens – was left out of its coverage. “You are a drink-soaked, former Trotskyist popinjay,” went his response. Just trout.”Melly has suffered from failing health in recent years, but reckons his main disability (deafness) can help, rather than hinder, the pursuit of trout. Provided, that is, his hearing aids don’t “whistle” due to feedback.* It’s a hornet’s nest in Westminster, as MPs bid for remaining jobs.

Fortunately, the 78-year-old jazz icon says rumours that he’s hanging up his fishing rods are wide of the mark.”I’m still hooked, and I’ve already had two days this season,” he told me, at the launch of Picasso: the Real Family Story.”I caught absolutely nothing, but I’m still fishing, and in fact am going up to Scotland for a few days I won’t be after salmon, as I’m not strong enough. “Some names are the same – I meant to go back and change them, but never got round to it.”* The only time George Melly dresses down is when indulging in his favourite pastime of fly-fishing. But he’s firmly denied rumours that the book – about an Irishman who moves to England and falls in love with a black girl – is based on their relationship.Intriguing, then, to hear that Harpers & Queen reckons the setting of the book’s filthiest sex scene, Monkey Lane in Ballyglass, actually exists – in Laird’s hometown of Cookstown.According to locals, it is the sort of place “where a few teenage fumblings were had”, and where you’d see “condoms lying everywhere on a Saturday morning”.Laird now concedes that his book’s setting, at least, is autobiographical.”Ballyglass is Cookstown,” he admits. The logic of the Durlacher deal was to increase small-cap business, the broker said.Word has it that White Nile, the oil explorer with interests in Sudan that has its shares suspended, will today provide a full update. It is expected to publish a document detailing the terms of its agreement with the national oil company of South Sudan, Nile Petroleum Its shares could resume trading from Monday.. While the public debate on the future of nuclear power in the UK continues, companies such as Amec are waiting on the sidelines ready to pick up billion-pound contracts to restore Britain’s nuclear generators if they get the green light from the Government. Critics say this will colour Purnell’s views on both the Beeb, and the funding of independent production companies.Yesterday, the Department for Culture, Media and Sport strongly denied their man could be compromised.”We’ve made it very public knowledge that James used to work at the BBC because we absolutely don’t think there’s any conflict,” they said.”As for his fianc? she is an independent film-maker, and the department has nothing to do with allotting funding for individual films.”* Zadie Smith looks like butter wouldn’t melt in her mouth; not so her husband, Nick Laird, whose debut novel Utterly Monkey is as mucky as they come.Irish-born Laird met Smith after emigrating to the UK to study at Cambridge.

It is also at risk from a downturn in industrial spending in the US.At 332p, the shares trade at about 12 times earnings Worth holding for news of future contract wins.. * It’s been a difficult week for James Purnell, the bright young thing that Tony Blair has thrown into the job of minister for Broadcasting and Tourism. Now, more of his past is coming back to haunt him.Before going into politics, Purnell was the head of corporate planning under John Birt at the BBC. As a result, his appointment has kicked-off a whispering campaign in the industry he is supposed to be regulating.”James has already had dozens of e-mails and text messages about being a poacher turned gamekeeper,” reports one colleague.”Some people think it’s very funny; others are seriously worried about a conflict of interest, particularly with the BBC’s charter up for renewal.”Elsewhere, questions are being asked about Purnell’s fianc? Lucy Walker, who works as a documentary film-maker. Government spending on PFI projects shows no sign of slowing, and these contracts bring in long-term revenues.